Lebanon in the Balance

In a recent interview with the Majalla publication, I was asked about Lebanon. The question was as follows:

How do you assess the political situation in Lebanon, which I know you love?

I love Maronite Lebanon. Lebanon reflects my love for the old Egypt, the cosmopolitan Egypt, i.e., the Mediterranean Egypt, of which only its memory and scope remain in old Egyptian movies.

I am an Egyptian man who has devoted his intellectual, mental, and cultural life to promoting the values of progress and modernity, confronting calls for the cultural “past” and “fundamentalism.”

This was the reason behind my fondness for Lebanon since the 1960s. The country was modern and incorporated the cultures of the Mediterranean.

However this Lebanon, too, suffered as much as Egypt did 70 years ago but on a different level and in a different manner.

I can give you my assessment of Lebanon’s current political situation and add my “vision” for the future of political life in this unique country compared to the other Arabic-speaking countries.

The current situation in Lebanon is the result of the following: First, a history of sectarianism that the Lebanese have not been able to overcome since September 1920, when General Henri Gouraud declared the state of Lebanon. Second, the Iranian demon represented by “Hezbollah,” which did not exist prior to the outbreak of the Lebanese civil war in 1975. Third, the situation in the vicinity since 1979, mainly represented by the policies of Syria, Iran, Israel, the Sunni/Shiite conflict, and others.

Unless the elements inside and outside Lebanon change, the current situation will certainly remain as it is. These elements are namely Iran’s influence in the region and in Lebanon, prioritizing the Lebanese citizenship over sectarianism, and the external pressures on Lebanon.

I believe the current situation in Lebanon and the external influences on the country will not witness major changes anytime soon. Therefore, I think that the life conditions of the Lebanese Christians will most likely become worse and eventually may lead them to establish their independence in one way or another.

In addition, another fact that worsens the situation of the Lebanese Christians is that the population growth of the Shiite Lebanese, the majority of whom completely follow the Iranian regime, is more than twice the rate of the population growth of the Christian Lebanese.

Finally, throughout the past 50 years, Arabic-speaking societies have witnessed a religious obsession phenomenon, which led to a decrease in the number of Christians in these societies and an increased pressure on the remaining Christians. This came in line with the growing societal divisions that amounted to civil wars in some Arab countries.

Lebanon now finds itself amid this incendiary situation and its unsolvable dilemmas, which impacts the Christian Lebanese as well.

The Majalla is a current affairs magazine that brings the Arab World into focus for its international readership. It is published online in English, Arabic and Persian.